The Pacers are in the Eastern Conference finals. Just as we all expected!
Don’t sleep on this series, though. Indiana can be a serious pest and annoy a Celtics team that’s prone to being pestered.
While I don’t have a play on a series winner, I do like a fun spread bet. And, of course, I have a Game 1 play.
Good luck!
Game 1 pick — Celtics -9.5 (-115, BetMGM)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
To quote James Carville: “It’s the Celtics, stupid.”
To me, that’s the only side to play in a game like this. Boston holds numerous advantages in Tuesday’s opener — and the series as a whole — and Game 1 should be THE GAME for the C’s.
For one, Boston has the rest advantage in a major way. The Celtics had five days off between games, while the Pacers didn’t even go back to Indianapolis after their East semifinals Game 7 win in New York. Indiana went straight to Boston and worked out at TD Garden on Monday.
Then there’s the significant fact that Indy is coming off literally the greatest shooting performance in NBA playoff history. After hitting an absurd, video-game-like 67.1% of their Game 7 shots, the Pacers are due for some regression. However, they are unique in that they LOVE to regress after a big showing.
Indiana is a dismal 24-29-1 ATS after a win. Not only do the Pacers experience regression, but they’ve perfected it too.
I anticipate a well-rested Boston team at home to exploit a fatigued, regression-prone Indy squad in Game 1.
Series pick — Pacers series spread +2.5 games (+130, DraftKings)
- BetMGM offer: $1500 in Bonus Bets paid back
So I know this is a weird bet to make if I expect the Celtics to win Game 1. If you do like my analysis above, I would wait until Indiana loses Tuesday to hit the series spread at a better number. But if you’re a genuine Pacers believer, this could be the bet for you.
Allow me to present my reasoning while I metaphorically don my best lawyer outfit (imagine something akin to Bob Odenkirk’s in “Better Call Saul,” blended with the suaveness of Tom Cruise in “A Few Good Men”).
- Indiana boasts the BEST offensive rating in the playoffs at 121.7 — superior to Boston’s 118.9.
- The Pacers have defeated the Celtics twice in the regular season out of five games and have covered three times.
- Boston has become unreliable in its three-point shooting, meaning Indy has the potential to steal a game or two simply due to the Celtics’ tendency to experience scoring droughts.
- The Pacers hold the second-fastest pace of all remaining playoff teams at 93.06. Expect them to employ a fast pace of play to control games, especially at home.
Hopefully, that convinced you enough to believe Indiana winning two games is not insane.
The Pacers have surprised people thus far. Why not continue the trend in the Eastern Conference finals?
NBA postseason record: 8-5, +2.48 units