Don’t look now, but we’re on a bit of a HE-HE-HEATER!
Let’s keep the good times rolling with another Celtics team total. However, this time, we’re fading them.
The pick — Celtics team total UNDER 113.5 points (-120, DraftKings)
DraftKings offers:
For Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semifinal series, I channeled my inner Ben Affleck at the beginning of “The Town” — I was all in on Boston.
But for Game 2, I'm feeling more like Ben Affleck at the end of the movie — I’m ready to step back from Boston.
While the series initially revolved around the Celtics offense, Game 2 is shaping up to showcase the Cavaliers defense. “Regression” is my favorite betting word, and it’s clear Cleveland is due for the positive kind.
After a vomit-inducing Game 1 defensive rating of 130.4, the Cavs are primed for a better defensive showing, one that is likely closer to their regular-season defensive rating of 112.1.
Limiting the three-ball is what Cleveland does best. In the regular season, the Cavaliers ranked eighth in opponent three-point attempts per game at 33.8. I don’t think we'll see Boston knock down 18 threes for a second straight game.
If it weren’t for a crazy 40-point first quarter in Game 1, the Celtics likely would have been under this team total number anyway. It’s very hard to be that consistent in the NBA playoffs.
With the zig-zag betting theory top of mind, let’s bet on some positive regression from the Cleveland defense and a less efficient Boston offense on Thursday.
NBA postseason record: 5-1 +3.59 units