If you like lawlessness and debauchery, you’re going to love Madison Square Garden for an elimination game. There will be celebrities. There will be fights. And there will be average-looking men full of hope when they see Selena Gomez show up courtside with Benny Blanco.
Down 3-1 to the Knicks, the 76ers face a “throw the kitchen sink” game on Tuesday. While that doesn’t guarantee a victory for Philadelphia, it helps dictate wagering on what is sure to be a dogfight in New York City.
I see the following side, total and prop hitting for Game 5.
Side — 76ers +4 at Knicks (-112, FanDuel)
FanDuel offers:
Are the Sixers good? Man, I have no idea. All I know is they’re capable of hanging with the Knicks. Don’t laugh, they are! People overlook that New York needed 47 points from Jalen Brunson to win Game 4. I’m not sure we’ll see that again.
Also, Philly is coming off an abysmal shooting game — only 35.4% from the field and just 27.3% from three. There should be a positive correction for the 76ers, who shot 46.4% from the field and 36.3% from three in the regular season.
There’s also the volatility of New York’s play. After a win, the Knicks are about as consistent as a McDonald’s ice cream machine. Their ATS record after a victory this season is a measly 47%. They simply haven’t shown the ability to build off wins with any real regularity.
Despite liking the 76ers spread, I’m still staying away from the 76ers ML. Call me a coward, call me gutless, call me the man who has tummy issues after drinking milk. I’m very happy taking the four points in a must-win game for Philadelphia.
Total — OVER 204.5 points (-105, BetMGM)
BetMGM offers:
OK, maybe the coward accusations worked. I’m taking the over on a low total. Why? Well, the logical next step in a Sixers cover/win is a higher-scoring game.
Look, I know must-win games and high-pressure moments typically lead to unders. However, Philly keeping this game close means there is going to be scoring. In their Game 3 victory, the 76ers racked up 125 points, and they’re set up for at least 100+ in Game 5, mostly due to the aforementioned positive shooting correction.
In laymen’s terms, I think the increase in threes falling begets even more threes falling. Philly’s defense isn’t stopping New York too many times, but the Sixers offense should be in a better spot to keep up with the Knicks. Together, they’ll hit the over on a small number.
Prop — Jalen Brunson UNDER 34.5 points (-110, BetMGM)
BetMGM offers:
I’m fading the king of Game 4. Dropping 47 points is impressive and all, but we’ll see a different Brunson back in New York City.
Because I lack a social life, I checked out Brunson’s home/road splits, and the differences are kind of wild. He’s a better player on the road, plain and simple. Away from the Garden, he scores almost three more points per game, and he shoots better, makes more threes and gets to the free-throw line more.
The one Brunson stat that’s better at home than on the road? Assists.
I think we’ll see Jalen the distributor more than scorer on Tuesday. Can he still go for 30? Easily. But he’s only achieved that on the road in this series. In Games 1 and 2 at home, he only managed 22 and 24 points, respectively.
The hype from Brunson’s 47-point explosion provides a great opportunity — to borrow a phrase from a colleague — to Fade the Noise surrounding the Knicks’ star guard. Bet the under.
NBA postseason record: 0-0, 0.00 units