Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: Illinois -6.5, OVER 138.5 (+100, MGM)
With a soft flick, a domino falls, ushering in a chain reaction of additional cascades that eventually reach a terminus.
That’s a fancy way of describing single-elimination play in March, a time when emotions run high, unforgettable memories are forged and, for one, a shining moment arrives.
In the NCAA Tournament for the first time since your grandpa rocked fashionable sideburns (1977), Duquesne is one of a few mid-majors that created a crook in the road. In bouncing BYU from the bEast bracket in Round 1, the Dukes employed their signature rigid defense and uncharacteristically ignited offensively. Your reward? Another daunting assignment — slowing down Brad Underwood’s breakneck Illini.
No rest for the weary.
With Kentucky tossing back bottles of Buffalo Trace in an attempt to numb the early elimination pain, Illinois arguably is the best offensive team still alive. This month (a stretch of seven games), the Orange and Blue tallied a fiery 1.272 points per possession, notching 53.4% from two and 37.5% from three. Also active on the offensive glass given their long limbs, the Illini can squeeze several second-chance opportunities. Equally important, they entice whistles to get to the free-throw line, where they shoot a terrific 74.5%.
NO. WORDS. @IlliniMBB pic.twitter.com/s6Ug5Q9BDi
— CBS Sports College Basketball 🏀 (@CBSSportsCBB) March 21, 2024
Illinois’ defensive effort is the giant question mark. When committed, its disruptive length and athleticism raise scoring difficulty. However, when the Illini are lackadaisical, teams with smooth ballhandlers and shot creators tear them up. It explains why opponents have logged an extraordinary number of close-to-the-rim attempts against Illinois this season (No. 216 in near-proximity shot attempts allowed, per Haslameterics).
For the princes of Pittsburgh, you can’t spell Duquesne with the “D.” Keith Dambrot, who is playing with house money in his final days as the school’s head coach, is an excellent skipper. His sets, traps and on-ball pressure often torment foes. Over their last eight games, the Dukes are No. 8 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, surrendering 0.889 points per possession and allowing 49.0% shooting inside the arc and 29.8% outside of it.
Offensively, Duquesne doesn’t typically land roundhouse kicks. Though the Dukes splashed seven triples and totaled 1.06 points per possession in their upset of BYU, they rank only No. 197 this month in eFG offense. Leading scorers Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Walker must shoot the leather off the ball for them to hang with Illinois’ meteoric offense.
Marcus Domask, who’s coming off the 10th triple-double in NCAA Tournament history, is a matchup problem. Terrence Shannon, who might be the best finisher in the college game, is another headache. If Dain Dainja (who scored a season-high 21 points in Thursday’s rout of Morehead State), Luke Goode, Quincy Guerrier, Coleman Hawkins or another random Illini erupt, it’s very doubtful Duquesne keeps it within striking distance.
Yes, ignore the roughly 30 pieces of Illinois merchandise in my possession. Objectively speaking, this low-profile Illini grad says a certain team inflicts damage.
Season record: 20-21, +1.28 units (We've dropped four straight. I'm sorry, Illinois.)
BONUS TIME — SGP: Creighton ML, Oregon +12.5 (+105, MGM)