Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — New Mexico +1 vs. Boise State (-105, DraftKings)
Ah, Taco Bell. When that late-night gummy or gallon of adult beverages kick in, the fast-food restaurant's illuminated sign glows on the horizon like a beacon from heaven.
So does after-dark betting action in the Mountain West Conference.
For two teams jockeying for NCAA Tournament seeding, particularly New Mexico which sits squarely on the highly competitive bubble, this MWC Tournament first-round matchup in Las Vegas has the chip stack all the way in.
The Lobos need this one as bad as your buzz-charged craving for a Mexican Pizza at 1 a.m.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
Offensively, Junior Pitino’s group must rely on the dynamite backcourt of Jamal Mashburn Jr. and Jaelen House to get buckets. As a collective, New Mexico stands at a respectable No. 45 nationally in points per possession since Feb. 1, netting a somewhat mediocre 48.5% inside the arc and 32.6% outside of it.
Cleaning up on the offensive glass is the Lobos’ greatest strength as they have grabbed a second chance on an outstanding 36.0% of their possessions over the last 11 games. Their breathtaking pace (No. 5 nationally in adjusted tempo) also exhausts the opposition.
Defensively, New Mexico has shown steady improvement. More susceptible earlier this season, the Lobos have tightened the screws of late. Though still beatable around the basket (53.8 2PT% D since Feb. 1), they’ve shut down business along the arc (30.8 3PT% D since Feb. 1). Equally superb sealing off the defensive glass, they're a tough customer if committed to contesting near-proximity shots.
As for Leon Rice’s Broncos, they're an under-the-radar projected mid-seed with quite a few sterling characteristics.
At 9-6 straight-up in road/neutral games and No. 35 overall (according to BartTorvik) in its last 10 games, Boise State has made its name with rebounding and offense. On the former, the Broncos rank top-35 in the country in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage. On the latter, they've converted 55.7% from two and 36.8% from three over the last month. Chibuzo Agbo’s 3-point marksmanship (41.6%) and the glass waxing skills of O’Mar Stanley and Tyson Degenhart speak to Boise’s balance.
The Fightin' Potatoes swept the regular-season series, and in the two games, the teams combined for 164 and 168 points. In the third go-round, look for needy New Mexico to keep it close.
And someone please order me a Burrito Supreme.
Season record: 15-14, +1.58 units
BONUS TIME — SGP: Colorado ML, OVER 142.5 (+100, MGM)