Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — Illinois -1.5 vs. Purdue (-110, DraftKings)
Across the flat fields of Central Illinois, the buzz about the Orange and Blue carries without much restriction. Unmitigated in its path, the loudness permeates from town to town, convincing even the most Negative Nancy a certain team does indeed possess deep-run potential. And as someone who lives along the roaring banks of the Sangamon, that’s quite the achievement.
If the Illini protect their home court Tuesday against powerhouse Purdue, the land-sweeping decibel level will only increase. People coast to coast are sure to buy in.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
Illinois is good, damn good. And this somewhat biased backer, speaking in objective tones mind you, isn’t afraid to make bold predictions about it.
State Farm Center in Champaign will be packed to the gills. Matt Painter’s freight train, with Zach Edey operating as engineman, is sure to lather up the 15,000-plus in attendance.
Yes, the Boilermakers have strong odds, even in defeat, of locking up the Big Ten regular season title and earning a No. 1 NCAA Tournament seed. However, that won’t dampen how meaningful the matchup is, especially for the home team. With a victory against Purdue, another win at Iowa and a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament, Illinois could vault as high as a No. 2 seed come Selection Sunday.
Offensively, the Illini are habanero hot. Over the past 30 days, NO team nationally has torched the twine with more success. During that span, Illinois is averaging an absurd 1.338 points per possession, netting 58.1% from two and 37.9% from three.
The versatility of 6-foot-10 Coleman Hawkins, the downhill demolitions of Terrence Shannon Jr. and the mystifying fadeaways of Marcus Domask conjure 1989 Flyin’ Illini vibes. It’s no shock that Brad Underwood’s club has scored at least 85 points in six straight contests.
The Illinois hype train derails with its defense. Once ranked top-10 in eFG D a couple months ago, the Illini have fallen to No. 102 in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. Most alarming, they are No. 300 in eFG D since Feb. 3. Teams with strong to-the-hoop cutting action have flourished against them (see Minnesota’s 1.43 points per possession). Unquestionably, it’s a glaring flaw.
Purdue defines “balance.” Ranking No. 2 in offensive efficiency and No. 21 in defensive efficiency this season, it generally has provided steady returns. However, opposing shooters have occasionally vexed the Boilers defense, which ranks a subpar No. 129 in eFG in the team’s last seven games. During that stretch, Purdue is No. 244 in 3-point percentage defense (36.0).
Defending the 7-foot-4 Edey is always a challenge. In the first matchup in West Lafayette, a game in which Illinois, without Shannon due to suspension, nearly completed a furious comeback only to fall 83-78, the gentle giant finished with 10 points and 15 rebounds. His looming presence and the marksmanship of Mason Gillis, Braden Smith and Lance Jones could greatly tax the Illini’s open-door defense.
In the end, look for Illinois to furiously attack the interior in an attempt to draw whistles. If that happens effectively along with kick-out passes for three, the uproarious crowd — the Evans clan included — will only add volume to the noise rolling across the land.
Give me the I-L-L, straight-up.
Season record: 11-9, +2.78 units
BONUS TIME — Nevada +5.5 at Boise State (-110, MGM)