Multiple times each week, The Gaming Juice’s resident action seeker, Brad Evans, will attempt to blast the ‘books with his favorite selections on sides, totals, props, teasers or parlays. As always, fade or follow Brad’s picks — fading is encouraged — but that’s up to you.
Sledgehammer Special — SGP: Texas +15.5, Baylor +3.5, Game OVER 135.5 (+100, MGM)
Along the banks of the Brazos is a Lone Star State matchup Chip and Joanna Gaines are fully invested in. Grab a seat, crack open a Shiner (Bock please!) and soak up what’s sure to be wackiness in Waco.
Houston is unrivaled in its rightful spot atop Texas basketball, but its intrastate compatriots are coming together at the most opportune time. The Longhorns and Bears rank inside BartTorvik’s overall top 15 since Feb. 1. Both are projected solid single-digit seeds on the latest Bracket Big Board. They undoubtedly will be tough outs in the NCAA Tournament.
[ Bracket Big Board: Brad Evans’ NCAA Tournament projections ]
Getting geeky, the advance numbers paint a rosy picture for Hook ‘Em.
Turning horns upright, the Fightin’ Matthew McConaugheys have tightened up defensively of late. Over their past eight games, a stretch in which they’ve gone 5-3 with road triumphs over TCU and Texas Tech, the Longhorns rank No. 68 nationally in effective field-goal percentage defense, giving up 48.9% from two and a stifling 29.8% from three. Terrific at corralling offensive boards and generating high-percentage near-proximity shots (No. 11 in the country), they have an interior upper hand.
As for Baylor, Scott Drew’s crew is 13-2 straight-up inside Foster Pavilion, ranking No. 8 among all home teams in eFG offense. The Bears also are shooting 56.2% from two and 38.0% from three since Feb. 1. Much slower compared to previous versions (No. 339 tempo), they can grind to Keith Sweat or “Push it,” Salt-N-Pepa style. Against a Texas team that relishes a brisker pace, they will gladly apply the gas.
Defensively, Baylor is a few coins short of a dollar. Though better at home (No. 161 in eFG D), it checks in at No. 233 overall in eFG D in its past eight games. Opponents have shot 54.6% inside the arc during that stretch. Texas forward Dylan Disu could go off.
The above ticket cashes IF the Longhorns can win the battle of the boards and continue to clamp down defensively. The Bears are an exceptional offensive team, but their defensive inadequacies imply another close shave similar to the teams’ Jan. 20 meeting in Austin — a 75-73 thriller won by UT. Carry the one and 'living in the middle' feels right.
Season record: 10-9, +1.78 units
BONUS TIME — SGP: NC State +10.5, Game OVER 141.5 (+100, MGM)