The Play: Virginia to make the NCAA Tournament (-138, FanDuel)
Virginia basketball moves with the speed of a Galapagos tortoise. And that might be underselling it.
Patience is the name of the game under Tony Bennett. Methodical, calculated and painfully slow (No. 362 out of 362 in adjusted tempo, per KenPom), the Cavaliers ramp up opponent frustration and low-percentage shots. In general, the reduced possessions explain why blowouts rarely occur, especially when weighing their usually unrelenting defense. (Emphasis on rarely.) For the ‘Hoos, the 75-41 annihilation by Virginia Tech on Feb. 19 in Blacksburg still qualifies as “too soon.”
Despite the program’s rich history, whether reflecting on its national title boom or No. 16 seed bust (UMBC!), Virginia is almost always in the at-large conversation. This season is certainly no exception.
With generous odds posted at one sportsbook (FanDuel) on whether the Cavs will bust a move into The Big Dance, here’s why I feel it’s worth the investment.
- Quadrant 1 wins. Full body of work. It’s what the Selection Committee constantly preaches. Yes, UVA has dropped three of its last four, but with a critical non-conference triumph against Florida on the resume, it’s in excellent shape. Also, the Cavs check the quality victories box with key wins against Wake Forest and at Clemson.
- Few blemishes. Unquestionably, the Notre Dame road defeat, 76-54 no less, taints the overall profile. However, it’s the only misstep so far. Many teams precariously sitting on the bubble can’t make the same argument.
- Strength of schedule. No doubt, the ACC is uncharacteristically vanilla this year. Entrenched well behind the Big 12, Big East, Big Ten and SEC in conference power metrics, it dwells on a similar plane as the paltry Pac-12. Still, UVA’s No. 82 overall SOS and No. 183 non-conference SOS aren’t terrible. Most noteworthy, it should improve with a road matchup at Duke and the ACC Tournament ahead.
- Jerry-built bubble. Screw NCAA Tournament expansion. The bubble, as usual, is Pillsbury Doughboy soft, packed with teams that define “mediocrity.” All have visible and throbbing warts. And, in short order, all will be argued tooth and nail by Selection Committee members whether they belong in the field. Comparing resumes and leaning on the reasons discussed above, UVA stands on safe ground.
If Virginia racks a 2-1 record in its final regular-season games (at Boston College, at Duke, vs. Georgia Tech) and wins 1-2 games in the ACC Tournament, its name will be called on Selection Sunday, likely in the 8-10 seed range. Similar to Providence, the Cavs should be closer to -200 than -110 odds.
Slap the wallet. Grab it now. And confidently pay the -138 juice. Just keep your fingers crossed they don’t lay an ostrich-sized egg down the stretch.